Author: Mr. Nguyen Cao Son

Chairman of APC Group

While previous geopolitical crises primarily impacted tourist sentiment or regionally, this shock directly affected the fundamental operating basis of the tourism industry: energy, and quickly spread globally. In Vietnam, airlines simultaneously adjusted their flight schedules, cutting some routes and flight frequencies. This is a rare instance in the history of Vietnamese aviation where a conflict 5,000 km away directly affected domestic flight schedules. From this, a strategic lesson emerges more clearly than ever: diversifying markets is no longer just a development option; it is a vital condition for building sustainable strength for a destination.

Jordan: A prime example of destination resilience.

Jordan stands out as a remarkable case study: a nation surrounded by conflict yet experiencing tourism growth. Lacking oil, a long coastline, and sandwiched between Israel, Iraq, and Syria, its tourism revenue in the first 11 months of 2025 still increased by 7% to $5.33 billion, despite the surrounding region experiencing turmoil since October 2023. The mechanism that has allowed Jordan to remain resilient is not luck, but rather a deliberately constructed market architecture built over many years.

When Western markets contracted due to concerns about regional instability, Jordan immediately activated its "backup channels": revenue from Asian tourists increased by 38.4%, from the US market by 18.6%, and from Europe by 30.2% – all within the first eight months of 2025 (according to data from the Central Bank of Jordan). The market structure is diversified enough that no single group can collapse all revenue when disruptions occur – this acts as a shock absorber. Simultaneously, even in the midst of the 2025 crisis, Jordan signed 25 new flight routes with European airlines, bringing in an additional 270,000 tourists that year. This demonstrates resilience in tourism: shocks are inevitable, but when one market withdraws, others fill the void.

Vietnam: Today's record - questions for tomorrow...

2025 is a record year: 21.1 million international visitors, a 21% increase, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak of 2019 for the first time. UN Tourism ranks Vietnam among the fastest-growing markets in the world in 2025. According to a report by The Outbox Company (March 2026), the top 5 tourist markets to Vietnam are: China (5.3 million), South Korea (4.3 million), Taiwan, the US, and India – accounting for approximately 55% of the total international visitors. China and South Korea alone account for nearly 40%. This concentration helps accelerate recovery in the short term, but at the same time increases the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates, visa policies, geopolitics, airfare costs, etc. In the context of an energy crisis like Hormuz, if many major markets decline simultaneously, will we have enough visitors to compensate? This is not just a problem for regulatory agencies, but also a strategic issue for businesses and destinations.

 

In a world increasingly susceptible to conflict and supply chain disruptions, market diversification is no longer the optimal choice for growth, but rather a condition for maintaining resilience. For Vietnam's tourism industry – currently experiencing its best growth in years – this is the opportune time to review its market structure, prepare for adverse scenarios, and build a stronger foundation for the next growth cycle.

And the paths that emerge from the crisis.

The Hormuz crisis, despite its painful losses, is opening up some perspectives on opportunities for strategic adjustments – in the medium and long term. No one can accurately predict where the next storm will come from. But experience from destinations that have weathered the storm shows that diversification is not something we build once we are stable – it is the foundation upon which stability is created.

Near markets and alternative markets

As international flights become more expensive, travelers tend to choose destinations with shorter flight routes. Southeast Asian markets – experiencing strong growth in Vietnam in 2025: Cambodia (+105.6%), Philippines (+95.1%), Indonesia (+6.9%) – are becoming less dependent on long-term aviation fuel costs. This is an ideal time to intensify promotional efforts to attract these markets. Similarly, India – a market projected to grow by 23.3% in Q1/2025, reaching nearly 700,000 visitors for the whole year and ranking in the top 5 for the first time – is the next market that needs serious investment in products and distribution channels, not just in media promotion.

From quantity to quality - a strategy that cannot be delayed.

As the number of flights decreases, each seat on a flight becomes more valuable. This is the time for destinations and businesses to push forward with a "value over volume" strategy: premium products, longer stays, and immersive experiences instead of fast-paced itineraries. This not only leads to higher revenue – it also protects profit margins in an environment of rising operating costs due to energy prices.

Don't overlook the domestic market as a strategic "backup channel".

Jordan is not only diversifying its international markets – it also relies on its large expatriate population and domestic/regional tourists as a buffer. Vietnam has 110 million domestic trips in 2024 – a very solid foundation. In the context of international tourists being limited by airfare prices, investing in stimulating high-quality domestic tourism (infrastructure, experiences, product packages) is not a "secondary" solution – it is an indispensable parallel strategy.