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According to the latest data from April 2026, the dream of cheap flights is becoming a luxury for the vast majority of passengers. Even if the conflict in the Middle East eases or crude oil prices undergo some adjustments, economic experts still offer a compelling forecast: Global airfares will remain at record highs and are unlikely to return to the levels of previous years. This is not just a temporary consequence, but a comprehensive restructuring of the operating costs of the air transport industry.
At the heart of the current crisis is the uncontrolled escalation of Jet-A1 fuel prices. The direct impact of conflicts in the Middle East has driven jet fuel prices from $85-90 per barrel to $150-200 per barrel in a short period. For an airline, fuel costs typically account for 20% to 30% of total operating costs, second only to labor costs. When this figure doubles, it creates a massive financial gap that no profit chart can compensate for.
The impact of geopolitical instability in the Middle East has driven Jet-A1 fuel prices to record levels, creating an unprecedented financial shock for the global aviation industry in 2026.
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, delivered a shocking figure, predicting the airline could incur an additional $11 billion in costs in 2026 if oil prices remain at current levels. To put this into perspective, even during its most successful year in history, the airline's profits haven't reached $5 billion. Similarly, Delta Airlines confirmed that fuel costs in March added $400 million to its budget compared to the same period last year. The inevitable consequence is that airlines are forced to increase ticket prices by at least 20% to survive, despite the potential for a direct decline in demand from leisure travelers.
The strategy of reducing capacity and the disappearance of cheap airline tickets.
To cope with the prospect of crude oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel until the end of 2027, or even reaching $175, airlines are implementing drastic austerity measures. United Airlines has announced plans to cut its flight capacity by 5% over the next six months, focusing on the peak summer travel season. Notably, budget flights during late-night or weekday hours, which are preferred by budget-conscious customers, are being phased out to optimize the cost-effectiveness per seat.
Low-cost airlines have also begun adjusting their fares to offset budget deficits.
Beyond just ticket prices, passengers also face a "rain" of ancillary fees. JetBlue (USA) pioneered the increase of $10 on most baggage fees, citing rising operating costs. This is seen as a domino effect, with airlines trying to maximize profits from every additional service to offset losses. Aviation expert Zach Griff bitterly remarked, "The higher the ticket prices, the fewer passengers the airline will have," but in reality, airlines today seem to prioritize preserving capital over chasing mass passenger numbers.
Experts predict that airfares will be difficult to cool down in 2026, even though demand from leisure travelers is under threat.
In Vietnam, from the beginning of April 2026, domestic airlines have also been affected. Faced with the skyrocketing cost of Jet-A1 flights, operators have had to review their entire flight network. The current strategy is to focus maximum resources on maintaining operations on key domestic routes such as Hanoi - Da Nang - Ho Chi Minh City to serve essential trade needs. For international routes, airlines are trying to maintain their presence in key markets to preserve their operating history, while adjusting the frequency of less profitable routes to balance the economic equation.
With airfares constantly fluctuating, travelers need smart strategies to protect their wallets and personal schedules. First and foremost is the principle of booking early. Securing tickets 3-6 months before departure not only saves money but also ensures a seat on flights that are currently experiencing reduced capacity. Travelers should prioritize flexible ticket options (allowing for date changes or refunds) because, given the current geopolitical situation, flight schedules can be unexpectedly altered by airlines.
Vietnamese airlines are striving to maintain flight frequencies on the main Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City routes.
Secondly, pay special attention to hidden fees. Before clicking the payment button, carefully check the baggage policy and any additional charges, as these extra fees at airports are often very high. Using online price comparison tools and signing up for airline promotional notifications remains an effective way to snag the last remaining tickets in the reasonable price range. Finally, consider alternative transportation options or closer destinations if your budget for air travel exceeds your means, ensuring a truly relaxing vacation instead of worrying too much about travel costs.
The biggest paradox of 2026 is this: Even if negative factors like wars end, airfares are unlikely to fall rapidly. Pent-up travel demand could surge, further pressure on already shrinking supply, thus keeping prices high. Passengers need to accept the new reality that air travel is no longer a mass-market, low-cost mode of transportation, but is gradually returning to its true value as a premium service and is directly affected by global fluctuations.
