With nearly 100% of tours in Vietnam cancelled, what's the outlook for the Middle Eastern market?

On the morning of March 3rd, conflict in the Middle East continued to escalate, leading to frequent opening and closing of airspace in several countries in the region. Numerous flight restrictions were issued, forcing many airlines to adjust routes or cancel flights. This development immediately had a ripple effect on Vietnam's tourism market, especially for routes with destinations or transit points through the Gulf region.

Tour cancellations and postponements have increased sharply.

According to travel agencies, the wave of tour cancellations and postponements has increased sharply in just the past few days, forcing companies to activate emergency response plans to ensure the rights and safety of their customers.

At Vietravel, as of now, the company is serving 3 tour groups in Dubai with a total of 51 tourists and 1 tour group in Egypt with 24 tourists. Due to the impact of flight schedule adjustments and airspace restrictions amidst escalating conflict, the groups are currently staying in hotels under safe arrangements while awaiting official updates from the transportation company.

Mr. Tran Doan The Duy, General Director of Vietravel, said that the company has proactively arranged standard hotels, ensured full meals and essential needs are met, and maintained regular communication between tour guides, the operations department, and customers to provide continuous and transparent updates.

"As soon as we received information about adjustments to flight operations over the Middle East, the company reviewed all relevant groups and implemented a plan to ensure adequate accommodation and living conditions for passengers while waiting for the airline to arrange the next steps," Mr. The Duy said.

For journeys scheduled to depart in March 2026 using Emirates and Qatar Airways, the airline will contact customers to advise on adjusting the flight route or switching to an alternative itinerary if necessary. If customers do not wish to depart during this period, the airline will support the retention of the full payment amount according to current policy.

The opening and closing of airspace by Middle Eastern countries significantly impacts tours and itineraries offered by Viet Travel and FIT Tour.

Mr. Pham Anh Vu, Deputy Director of the unit, said that for the time being, almost all tourists have completely stopped planning tours to Israel, Iran, Jordan, and Egypt. Regarding the Dubai - Abu Dhabi - Doha - Saudi Arabia route, although theoretically it could still be implemented when the situation stabilizes, at present, most groups have canceled or requested postponements before the scheduled departure date.

Compared to the same period last year, the rate of cancellations/postponements of tours to the Middle East has increased dramatically.

Several businesses reported that for tours from Dubai to Abu Dhabi, Doha, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, almost 100% of groups requested postponements or cancellations close to the departure date. This wasn't limited to tours specifically in the Middle East; individual travelers also saw high cancellation rates due to concerns about potential risks.

The impact doesn't stop at the destination. Previously, many European, African, and American tours offered by Vietnamese businesses were closely tied to Gulf airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways due to competitive prices and consistent quality. However, with airspace restrictions in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, etc., many flights are forced to detour, extending travel time and increasing fuel costs. This pressure could lead to higher airfares and tour prices, not only for tours to Dubai and Doha but also for routes to France, Italy, Switzerland, the US, Canada, South Africa, etc., if transiting through the Gulf region.

Faced with this situation, businesses are forced to reconsider their operating strategies: either accept higher tour prices by continuing to use Gulf airlines, or shift some routes to avoid the Middle East (via Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc.) and clearly explain the cost differences and risks to customers.

Legally, in standard tour contracts, most travel agencies include force majeure clauses related to war, armed conflict, terrorism, natural disasters, major epidemics, or decisions by authorities to close or restrict flights. When such events occur, the travel agency and the customer are exempt from liability for compensation exceeding the incurred and unrecoverable costs.

In the current context, the basis for this could include official documents from the Vietnam Civil Aviation Authority requesting avoidance of conflict zones, airspace restrictions, and flight cancellation/delay information from airlines. Based on this, businesses work with partners to request refunds, exchanges, or ticket reservations; reserve ground services; and negotiate to minimize penalty fees. Customers are offered options such as rescheduling the tour to a safer time, transferring money to another tour, or canceling the tour entirely, with only the actual unrecoverable costs as shown in the documents being deducted.

The Middle East is experiencing a temporary slowdown, and tourist flows are shifting.

The Middle East has long been a strategic market, not only as a destination but also as an important transit hub connecting Vietnam with Europe, Africa, and the Americas. However, given the current situation, the role of this market is being re-evaluated.

Mr. Vu from Vietnam Tourism believes that, considering demand and market conditions, when tensions rise in the Middle East, tourists will automatically "flow" to regions considered safe, easy to access, and offering familiar products while still providing good experiences. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia are predicted to be major beneficiaries, as many European and regional tourists shift from the Middle East to Asia due to safety, beautiful scenery, and distinct cultures.

Within the region, Oman is currently often mentioned as a safer option, offering deserts, beaches, fortresses, and Islamic culture, but with less direct involvement in conflict. Similarly, some areas of Morocco (such as Essaouira) are also considered by international visitors as alternatives to the Arabian-Mediterranean experience.

For travelers from Vietnam, the demand for destinations like Dubai, Jordan, and Egypt has shifted significantly due to concerns about risks, shifting towards Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, or European routes via alternative flights (Singapore Airlines, Vietnam Airlines, ANA, JAL, etc.).

Despite the short-term impact, tour operators remain cautiously optimistic. If the conflict does not spread, the market has the potential to recover thanks to the robust infrastructure of Dubai and Doha.

However, Mr. Tran Doan The Duy commented: "Within the next year, the Middle East will probably only play the role of a niche product. Pilgrims or young travelers who prefer unusual experiences may return soon, but the general public will prioritize destinations with a consistently safe and stable image over many years."

Additional information:

Given the complex developments in the conflicts in Iran, Israel, and some neighboring areas of the Middle East, on March 2nd, the Vietnam National Tourism Administration issued Official Letter No. 400/CDLQGVN-LH, requesting international travel businesses to proactively respond to the situation in the context of the conflicts in Iran, Israel, and the neighboring Middle East.

According to recommendations from the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, businesses must closely monitor the situation, suspend tours to dangerous conflict zones, and maintain contact with partners and Vietnamese diplomatic missions to ensure the safety of tour groups currently in affected areas.

The Vietnam National Tourism Administration emphasizes the need to prioritize the safety of tourists and to promptly report any incidents for coordinated handling.

Phuong Thao is an editor at Travellive magazine. She is passionate about traveling and enjoys capturing moments with her camera in every place she visits. Travel, art, and lifestyle are Phuong Thao's favorite writing topics.

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