VI
EN
Recently, major Chinese state-owned airlines have simultaneously implemented a policy allowing passengers to cancel or change flights to Japan free of charge, a clear signal that Beijing is using economic leverage to counter Tokyo's foreign policy.
According to Nikkei Asia, major airlines such as Air China, China Southern, China Eastern, along with Sichuan Airlines and Hainan Airlines, have implemented this special preferential policy. The decision covers all flights between China and major Japanese cities such as Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and many others, effective from now until December 31st. This is seen as a unilateral action, going beyond normal trade rules, aimed at facilitating Chinese citizens to abandon their travel plans to Japan.
According to Nikkei Asia, a number of major Chinese airlines have announced that they will allow passengers to cancel or change destinations for all flights between China and Japanese cities.
The immediate cause of this escalating tension was a statement by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae. She described the possibility of China attacking Taiwan as a "life-threatening situation" for Japan.
This legal term is extremely sensitive because it allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to use force to support allies, even when Japan is not directly attacked. The reaction from Beijing was almost immediate and harsh: the Japanese ambassador was summoned, and the Chinese government publicly urged its citizens to limit travel to Japan. The Chinese consulate in Osaka even posted a very strong warning message on social media before having to remove it.
The airlines' decision is seen as a concrete manifestation of calls to restrict travel, aiming to deal a severe blow to Japan's tourism industry – a vital pillar of the economy. Chinese tourists spent 1.7 trillion yen (approximately $11.2 billion) in 2024, accounting for more than 21% of total international spending. In the first nine months of the year alone, Japan welcomed 7.48 million visitors from mainland China.
The history of bilateral tensions has shown a significant decline in tourism. Following the 2010 ship collision and the 2012 anti-Japanese protests, the number of Chinese tourists dropped by more than 40%, demonstrating how tourism is often used as a coercive diplomatic tool.
Japanese businesses are beginning to feel the impact of bilateral tensions.
While major Japanese airlines like ANA and JAL have stated they haven't seen any mass cancellations, Japanese businesses are gripped by anxiety. Many negotiations with Chinese state-owned partners have stalled. Local businesses are becoming hesitant to promote their products on Chinese social media platforms for fear of negative reactions. The hotel industry is particularly concerned, predicting a wave of cancellations from group tours could begin as early as next week.
Chinese tourists are considered a pillar of Japan's tourism industry, with spending estimated at 1.7 trillion yen (approximately $11.2 billion) in 2024, accounting for 21.2% of total international visitor spending.
Professor Toshiro Yajima, a tourism research expert at Nihon University, noted that while tourism is a frequently used diplomatic tool, the current context is different. He pointed out that China is experiencing a significant increase in individual tourists – a group that is more difficult to control and less susceptible to disruption than group tours. Therefore, the extent to which this travel restriction advisory will be implemented remains uncertain.
In the first nine months of the year alone, Japan welcomed 7.48 million Chinese tourists.
With state-owned airlines implementing an "open door" ticket cancellation policy, analysts are closely monitoring whether this marks the beginning of an economic crisis fueled by geopolitical tensions.
