After a sharp decline in 2020 due to the pandemic, the global tourism industry is expected to grow by nearly 25% in 2021 and by another 22% in 2022, according to the annual report of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). In 2019, the tourism industry contributed more than 10% of global GDP and in 2023, it is expected to generate more than 9.5 trillion USD, reaching more than 95% compared to 2019.
Accordingly, the global recovery will take place in 2024. The slow but steady return of the Chinese tourist market is one of the factors that helps the recovery. From there, the sector will continue to grow.
The streets of Bangkok, Thailand are packed with visitors attending the Songkran Water Festival 2023. Photo: Reuters
“We expect 2024 to surpass 2019,” said Julia Simpson, president and CEO of WTTC.
According to the study, tourism activities in 34 countries out of 185 studied will have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in terms of GDP contribution) by the end of 2022. The two leading countries are the US and the Dominican Republic. According to WTTC, at least 50 more countries will recover to 95-100% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.
In the study, WTTC also pointed out that North America and Latin America are the regions that will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023. Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific will recover by 2024, followed by countries in the Caribbean region in 2025.
The recovery does not mean that the number of trips will return to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation and rising travel costs will make trips more expensive. Demand for travel in many regions will increase sharply in 2021 and 2022 as countries reopen their borders. But the number of trips will not grow as strongly in 2023.
Higher airfares and hotel prices will “significantly limit travel in 2023,” according to a report by Riskline, a Denmark-based global travel risk assessment company. Political instability is next. And according to data from Morning Consult, one of North America’s fastest-growing tech companies, willingness to travel varies across regions. The desire to travel is high in South Korea and Western Europe.
Travelers are cutting back on travel rather than canceling trips. For example, while domestic travel demand among Americans has cooled this year, they are planning to travel abroad more often.
In 2019, the tourism industry provided jobs for 334 million people, an all-time high. In 2020, about 70 million people lost their jobs. In 2021, 11 million jobs were recovered and another 21.6 million in 2022. In 2023, the tourism industry provided more than 300 million jobs, reaching 95% of pre-pandemic levels.
By 2033, WTTC forecasts that the tourism sector will employ around 430 million people worldwide, accounting for nearly 12% of the global workforce, contributing $15.5 trillion and accounting for 11.6% of global GDP.
