The global tourism industry could be moving toward carbon passports by 2040.

This may be great news economically, but some experts have expressed concerns that a return to the status quo of rapid tourism growth could have serious environmental and social consequences.

Summer has seen record-breaking heatwaves in many parts of the world. Tourists have even had to flee wildfires in Greece and Hawaii, and warnings of extreme weather have spread to popular holiday destinations such as Portugal, Spain, and Türkiye. Experts attribute these extreme conditions to climate change.

Tourism is part of the problem. The tourism industry generates about one-tenth of greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to the climate crisis.

The negative impacts of tourism on the environment have become serious. Some argue that drastic changes to our travel habits are inevitable.

A 2023 report analyzing the future of sustainable tourism by travel company Intrepid Travel suggested that "carbon passports" would soon become a reality if the tourism industry hoped to grow.

The carbon passport concept

The concept of a carbon passport centers on each traveler being granted an annual carbon allowance that cannot be exceeded. These allowances are then likened to travel "rations."

This concept may seem extreme. But the idea of ​​individual carbon subsidies isn't new. A similar concept (known as "personal carbon trading") was discussed by the UK Parliament in 2008 but never implemented due to its complexity and the potential for public opposition.

The average annual carbon emissions per person in the US are 16 tonnes – one of the highest in the world. In the UK, the figure is 11.7 tonnes, still five times higher than the target set in the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

Globally, the average annual carbon emissions per person are approximately 4 tonnes. However, to achieve the goal of keeping global temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius, average global carbon emissions need to be reduced to below 2 tonnes by 2050. This is equivalent to about two round-trip flights between London and New York.

A report by Intrepid Travel predicts that carbon passports are likely to be implemented by 2040. Several laws and restrictions implemented over the past year have shown that our travel habits may be about to change.

Air travel goals

Between 2013 and 2018, CO₂ emissions from commercial aircraft worldwide increased by 32%. Improvements in fuel efficiency are gradually reducing emissions per passenger. Research from 2014 also showed that regardless of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the world is still severely impacted by the growth of air traffic.

For emissions reductions to be meaningful, airfares would have to increase by 1.4% annually, so some people are reluctant to fly. However, in reality, airfares have been falling.

Some European countries are beginning to implement measures to restrict air travel. Since April 1, 2023, passengers on short-haul flights and older aircraft in Belgium have been subject to increased taxes to encourage alternative modes of travel.

Less than two months later, France banned short-haul domestic flights, whereas similar journeys could be made by train in 2.5 hours or less. Spain is expected to do the same.

A similar plan could also be implemented in Germany. In 2021, a YouGov poll showed that 70% of Germans would support these climate change measures if alternative transport options such as trains or ships were available.

Yachts and carbon

It's not just air travel that's under criticism. A 2023 investigation by the European Federation for Transport and Environment found that cruise ships are also pumping four times more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere (proven to cause acid rain and several respiratory illnesses) than the combined emissions of around 291 million European cars.

Such statistics have forced European destinations to take action to restrict cruise tourism. In July, the Amsterdam council banned cruise ships from docking in the city center in an effort to reduce tourist numbers and pollution.

In 2019, Venice, a European port, also suffered from pollution due to the large number of cruise ships visiting. The famous Italian city dropped to 41st place in 2022 due to pollution. The city authorities issued a ban on large cruise ships entering the city's waters in an effort to reduce air pollution from ships in Venice by 80%.

Change destination

A report by Intrepid Travel concludes that the tourism industry not only causes environmental pollution through transportation but also that the places we travel to will soon be affected by climate change.

Rising temperatures could diminish the appeal of traditional beach destinations, prompting European tourists to seek cooler locations like Belgium, Slovenia, and Poland for their holidays.

Several travel companies reported a significant increase in bookings for holidays to cooler European destinations such as Scandinavia, Ireland, and the United Kingdom during the peak summer travel months of 2023.

Whatever the solution, changes in travel habits seem inevitable. Destinations worldwide, from Barcelona to Italy's Riviera and even Mount Everest, are calling for limits on tourist numbers as they grapple with crowds and pollution.

"Tourists should prepare to change their travel habits now before it's too late," CNN suggests.