The mystery of the "fire horse curse": Why are the Japanese so apprehensive about 2026?

As the world prepares to enter 2026, East Asian nations are beginning to prepare for the Year of the Fire Horse, following the 60-year cycle of the Chinese calendar. However, in Japan, the joy of welcoming the new year is being "shaken" by a deeply ingrained prejudice that has existed for centuries: the Year of the Fire Horse (hinoe uma). An ancient but powerful superstition that once altered the demographic chart of a superpower, causing record-breaking birth rates.

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In the Eastern astrological system, the 12 zodiac animals do not stand alone but are closely linked to the Five Elements theory: Metal, Wood, Water, Fire, and Earth. This combination creates a cyclical 60-year period full of transformation. While babies born in 2014, the Wood Horse (Giáp Ngọ), are characterized by calmness, those due to be born next year will belong to the Fire Horse – a combination of the Heavenly Stem Bính (Fire) and the Earthly Branch Ngọ (Fire). In traditional Japanese belief, this "fire upon fire" combination creates individuals with explosive, powerful energy, but also fraught with risks and uncertainties.

The fear of "hinoe uma" (a woman born in the year of the Fire Horse) is not just a topic of casual conversation; it has been historically documented with revealing demographics. Centuries-old prejudice holds that women born in the year of the Fire Horse are often stubborn, aggressive, hot-tempered, and especially bring bad luck to their relatives. According to this extreme superstition, women born in the year of the Fire Horse are considered the cause of unhappy marriages, even negatively impacting the lives and careers of their fathers and husbands.

This very mentality has led to Japan experiencing dramatic declines in its birth rate in the past. During the Fire Horse years of 1846 and 1906, birth rates fell by 6% to 8% compared to the preceding years. The peak was in 1966 – the most recent Fire Horse year of the 20th century – when contraception and abortion became widespread, causing Japan's birth rate to plummet by 21% to 24%.

However, does the "curse" of the unfortunate fate of these fiery horse girls truly exist from the perspective of modern data science and economics? Hiroyuki Yamada, a professor of economics at the prestigious Keio University and author of a research paper on the economic-cultural development published in 2025, has presented some surprising findings.

Through analyzing nationwide surveys conducted since the 1990s on women born between 1964 and 1968, Professor Yamada asserts that women born in 1966 are virtually indistinguishable from or disadvantaged compared to their peers. From educational attainment and personal purchasing power to quality of life after marriage, there is no concrete evidence to suggest that women born in the year of the Fire Horse are ostracized by society or experience misfortune, as some long-held rumors suggest.

The perplexing question is why a prejudice strong enough to alter an entire nation's demographics doesn't actually affect the quality of life of those women themselves? The answer lies in a profound shift in Japanese social structure and conceptions of love. In the 1960s, when the 1966 Fire Horse generation was conceived, arranged marriages (Miai) still accounted for nearly 50% of all first marriages. Parents at the time feared that their daughters would be harshly judged, or even rejected, by their future in-laws and matchmakers simply because of their "unlucky" zodiac sign. To protect their children from these invisible barriers, many couples chose to postpone or avoid having children born in the Fire Horse year.

However, by the 1990s – the time when the 1966 "Fire Horse" generation entered the age of starting families – the social landscape had completely shifted. At this point, marriages based on voluntary love accounted for 80% of the market share. In relationships built on mutual understanding and personal feelings, prejudices about birth year gradually faded and lost their controlling power. Actual data shows that discrimination has virtually no place in modern marriages in Japan. Professor Yamada emphasized in The Japan Times that the negative impact on the reproductive behavior of those born in 1966 mainly stemmed from parents' fears about the pressure of the old marriage model, rather than from the actual abilities or fate of those born in that year.

As we approach 2026, will Japan face a dramatic decline in its birth rate like the one 60 years ago? Experts believe this scenario is unlikely to repeat itself on the same scale. Modern society, with its remarkable advancements in awareness, widespread access to science, and the fading of outdated customs, has rendered the "Hinoe Uma curse" less influential in young people's decisions. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that astrology still holds a certain underlying influence on reproductive decisions in East Asia.

While the Japanese are wary of the Year of the Fire Horse, countries and territories like China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong frequently experience population booms in the Years of the Dragon (such as 1988, 2000, 2012, and 2024) – a mythical creature symbolizing power and prosperity.

Looking back at history and Professor Yamada's economic research, the prejudice surrounding the Year of the Fire Horse serves as a valuable lesson about how superstitious beliefs can profoundly influence a nation's demographic structure. However, reality has shown that an individual's destiny is not determined by the animal after which they bear their name, but rather by their knowledge and self-effort. While 2026 may still be a challenging year for Japan's aging population, superstitious beliefs will undoubtedly give way to more practical economic and social factors.

Khanh Linh