California, America's crown jewel with its idyllic Pacific coastline, majestic sequoia forests and famous Silicon Valley, is facing a remarkable turning point in its already vibrant tourism landscape.
After a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of visitors to the state is expected to decline for the first time. According to NBC News, the root cause of this change is believed to be a direct result of tariffs, controversial statements and escalating diplomatic tensions under President Donald Trump, causing a sharp decline in international visitors to the United States in general and California in particular in 2025.
California forecasts first decline in tourism in five years - a result of President Trump's controversial statements and policies
The nonprofit Visit California, a strategic partner of the state tourism office, has issued grim forecasts, predicting that total visitor arrivals to California this year will be down 0.7 percent from 2024. More worryingly, international arrivals are projected to fall by 9.2 percent, a sign of the faltering appeal of California to visitors from around the world.
Caroline Beteta, executive director of Visit California, expressed concern when she said: "California's tourism industry - which has been a steady and reliable growth engine for decades - is now facing a projected contraction by 2025." This statement is like a warning bell about the challenges facing the state's smokeless industry.
The tourism industry here is famous worldwide and brings in a lot of profit.
A detailed report from Visit California has identified key factors that have led to the significant decline in international tourism. In addition to inflation due to higher tariffs, another important factor is the growing negative sentiment towards the United States among the international community, stemming from President Trump’s tough trade policies and controversial statements. In this context, domestic tourism in the United States is expected to remain stable, but this is unlikely to make up for the lack of international tourism.
The Visit California report cited reasons for the decline in international visitors as inflation due to higher tariffs, along with negative sentiment toward the United States following President Trump's trade policies and rhetoric.
Notably, the biggest declines are expected to come from close neighbors Canada and Mexico – traditional tourism markets that have historically contributed more visitors and revenue to California than any other country. Last year, about 1.8 million Canadian visitors came to California, generating an estimated $3.72 billion in revenue, according to state statistics. This year, however, that number is expected to drop by nearly 20%, a worrying decline for the state’s tourism industry.
The biggest declines are expected to come from visitors from Canada and Mexico — countries that have historically visited and spent more in California than any other country.
In response, the California government is making every effort to restore the number of tourists from Canada, according to The San Francisco Standard. Measures implemented include partnering with Expedia to offer attractive discounts and launching a new promotional video called "California Loves Canada" to strengthen and improve relations with the people of the maple leaf country. In addition, the state also expects to welcome more tourists from emerging markets such as India and Japan this year, as an effort to diversify its visitor sources.
However, according to an analysis by NBC News, President Donald Trump’s trade policies and somewhat hostile tone towards many countries around the world are creating a clear backlash from international travelers. This change in attitude is not only an emotional issue but can also lead to practical decisions in choosing a travel destination.
California is working hard to lure Canadian tourists back, offering discounts on Expedia
These changes threaten to have significant economic impacts for California and the United States as a whole. One Wall Street firm forecasts that total U.S. tourism revenue could fall by as much as $90 billion this year, compounding the impact of reduced tourism and boycotts of American goods in response to the Trump administration’s policies.
Notably, tourism from Canada recorded the largest decline, perhaps in part due to President Trump's controversial statements, including the suggestion that the northern neighbor could become the "51st state" of the US, in addition to restrictive trade policies that have caused no small amount of disagreement between the two countries.
The state is expected to welcome more tourists from India and Japan this year.
It’s not just Canada that’s seeing a decline in tourism from Western Europe, another important market for the US. According to data from the National Travel and Tourism Office, a unit of the US Department of Commerce, tourist arrivals from countries that are considered the most stable in terms of tourist arrivals, such as the UK and Germany, have also opted to stay away from the US. In fact, the number of visitors from these countries fell by 29% in March alone, one of the largest declines on record outside of the pandemic, indicating a worrying shift in European tourists’ attitudes towards travelling to the US under the Trump administration.
