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Asian tourism began to recover in 2022, with more and more countries reopening their borders. And now that China has reopened, its citizens are getting ready for group overseas trips starting February 6th.
This news delivered what the global tourism industry had been waiting for for almost three years: the return of the world's largest outbound tourism market.
200 million Chinese tourists are expected to travel abroad by 2028.
Starting February 6th, Chinese group tours will resume to 20 destinations. Eleven of these – Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, New Zealand, and Fiji – are in the Asia-Pacific region. While the trend of individual travel among Chinese tourists had already begun to emerge before the pandemic, the early resumption of large group tours at this time will also impact the short-term strategies of Chinese airlines.
China has reopened, and its citizens are preparing for group overseas trips starting on February 6th.
The recovery of Chinese outbound tourism is projected to be very strong. Analysts predict that Chinese outbound tourism will increase rapidly in the second half of 2023. The China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI) stated that by 2025, the number of outbound trips by Chinese people will reach 179 million, surpassing the 2019 level.
By 2028, China will reach 200 million overseas trips. This is a very rapid pace, just 14 years after the country recorded 100 million overseas trips in 2014, and notably including the three years during which it was closed off.
Restoring tourism demand in the region.
So, what does China's reopening mean for the tourism economies of the Asia-Pacific region?
Firstly, it will stimulate significant tourism demand for the entire tourism and travel industry in the Asia Pacific region after the recent difficult period.
A quick survey of the region reveals that in 2019, China was the number one source market for tourists from Australia, Japan, and South Korea. In Southeast Asia, it was the leading source market for Cambodia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, and second for five other countries. Chinese tourists were also the second largest source of visitors for the New Zealand market.
Although tourism in the Asia Pacific region gradually recovered in 2022, the results were uneven. Many destinations in the region reported visitor numbers that were not particularly impressive in 2022.
Furthermore, with the global economic recession projected to worsen in the second quarter of this year, Asia's tourism industry desperately needs momentum for a strong recovery. According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), over 900 million people traveled internationally in 2022, representing 63% of the 2019 figure. However, the Asia-Pacific region only achieved a 23% recovery compared to 2019, significantly lower than the 79% in Europe and 65% in the Americas.
Increased competition among destinations.
2023 also marks the first time since 2019 that the Asia-Pacific region is expected to have a vibrant year for tourism, with all countries having reopened. Destinations will aggressively promote themselves to attract tourists from around the world, not just from China.
Thailand welcomed 11.2 million tourists in 2022.
An interesting competition is likely to unfold between Thailand and Japan as both aim to become the region's leading tourist destination by 2023. Both countries have benefited from China's reopening, particularly with Japan lifting its current entry restrictions for Chinese visitors.
Japan and Thailand also welcomed record numbers of tourists in 2019: 31.9 million to Japan and 39.9 million to Thailand. While these two countries may not see similar numbers in 2023, they are both projected to experience impressive growth. Thailand, which welcomed 11.2 million tourists in 2022, could double that number. Japan, which only reopened in October 2022, could also surpass 20 million tourists this year.
New challenges will emerge.
Nevertheless, the recovery of the tourism industry across the Asia Pacific region may still face many challenges. The tourism sector remains understaffed and has limited resources. It remains unclear how airports, transport hubs, and destinations in the region will cope with the surge in visitors.
Furthermore, questions about climate change and sustainable economic development are also being raised in relation to tourism. Questions about the quality and quantity of tourists will resurface in some destinations, especially those where tourism has a significant impact on the environment and communities.
For the Asia Pacific region, a new era of tourism and travel is beginning right now. Many new tourism models are emerging, and forecasts for the industry will be frequently revised.
